THE SCALE OF KARDASHEV AND OUR (JOINT) FUTURE PART I - MONEY OR ENERGY? (A to-think-about-article) Kees Deckers May 2011 Kardashev’s Scale of civilisations  In 1964 the Russian astronomer Nikolai Kardashev proposed a scale as method to determine the level of civilisation on the basis of energy.  Better put, on the degree of its energy consumption. The scale initially consisted of three levels of civilisation.  To wit: Kardashev scale The Kardashev scale is a method of measuring an advanced civilization's level of technological advancement. The scale is only theoretical and in terms of an actual  civilization highly speculative; however, it puts energy consumption of an entire civilization in a cosmic perspective. It was first proposed in 1964 by the Soviet  Russian astronomer Nikolai Kardashev. The scale has three designated categories called Type I, II, and III. These are based on the amount of usable energy a  civilization has at its disposal, and the degree of space colonization. In general terms, a Type I civilization has achieved mastery of the resources of its home planet,  Type II of its solar system, and Type III of its galaxy. The original and the final draft for this particular scale had energy consumptions ranging so widely from each other, that Kardashev himself revised the scale as to  include values between, in hundredths. The human civilization as of 2010 is currently somewhere around 0.72, with calculations suggesting we may attain Type I status  in about 100–200 years, Type II status in a few thousand years, and Type III status in about 100,000 to a million years. Energy use ... Type I - a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available on a single planet — has approximately 10  16  or 10  17  W available. Earth specifically has an  available power of 1.74 × 10  17  W (174 peta watts, see Earth's energy budget). Kardashev's original definition was 4 × 10  12  W - a "technological level close to  the level presently attained on earth" ("presently" meaning 1964).  Type II - a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single star, approximately 4 × 10  26  W. Again, this figure is variable; the Sun outputs  approximately 3.86 × 10  26  W. Kardashev's original definition was also 4 × 10  26  W. Type III - a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single galaxy, approximately 4 × 10  37  W. This figure is extremely variable, since  galaxies vary widely in size; the stated figure is the approximate power output of the Milky Way. Kardashev's original definition was also 4 × 10  37  W. Internet reference (09-05-11):  At a later time a number of levels have been added:  Hypothetical extensions Type IV - The civilisation is capable of using all available energy from a supercluster of galaxies; that is about 1046 W.  Type V - The civilisation is capable of using all available energy from the entire universe; that is about 1054 W. Such a civilisation transcends our current possibilities  to extrapolate and may not be possible.  Fictitional extensions These come from science fiction and may differ depending on the source. Type VI - Control over the energy of multiple universes — a theoretically unlimited amount of energy. The civilisation may be able to change the laws of nature of  the universes. The civilisation can escape a dying universe and thus theoretically exist forever.  Type VII - Theoretical status of a god, with the power to create universes, and use these as sources of energy. Such a civilisation has left the technological singularity  far behind and is for people no longer to grasp.  Internet reference (10-05-11) (my own translation from Dutch):  The Type I-Civilisation, the lowest level, is the closest to the current, narrowed scientific factuality of humanity, while the highest level is the  most fantastic and fictional.  Here too, the inextricable entanglement of fact and fiction may become clear. And here too, it may become clear that for humans fictions  always lead the way, and facts lag behind. While the first two levels may still seem more or less feasible from the scientific horizon of today,  the higher levels are increasingly further away from the current scientific factuality. But if humanity manages to achieve the level of a Type II-  Civilization, then the subsequent levels are possibly much closer to the facts of the sciences of that level of civilisation, and their fictionality  tends increasingly to an actual possibility.  It is fiction that points to the possible way humans can go. But it is the factual manner, in which Human (I) as Mean(S) treats himself and his  own, closeby environment (from now onwards and) in the most near future, which will cause how far the fiction of all these levels of  civilisation may become a fact to him.  So, it is the way of progression to the future, which we decide to make, which will show in how far the most fictional level of civilisation is in  the cards for humanity. Provided we do not already have an encounter earlier on with an alien civilisation. Then it possibly becomes a totally  different story. The current place of humanity on the Scale  Not only has the Scale been expanded over time, but is has also been adjusted, by Kardashev himself, and, amongst others, by Carl Sagan.  Intermediate values have been added, because the steps between a Type I-, II- and III-Civilisation really are very large. A second adjustment  is the term Type 0(=zero)-Civilisation. This term Type 0-Civilisation has been thought of later to indicate where humanity is located on the  Scale.  The original and the final draft for this particular scale had energy consumptions ranging so widely from each other, that Kardashev himself revised the scale as to include  values between, in hundredths. The human civilization as of 2010 is currently somewhere around 0.72, with calculations suggesting we may attain Type I status in about  100–200 years, Type II status in a few thousand years, and Type III status in about 100,000 to a million years. ... Current status of human civilization ... Human civilization is currently somewhere below Type I, as it is able to harness only a portion of the energy that is available on Earth. The current state of human  civilization has thus been named Type 0. Although intermediate values were not discussed in Kardashev's original proposal, Carl Sagan argued that they could easily be  defined by interpolating and extrapolating the values given above. In 1973, he calculated humanity's civilization type to be 0.7, in relationship to Kardashev's model for  Types 0 and I. Internet reference (09-05-11):  At that time, 1964, and even today, about 50 years later, humanity has not even been able to achieve the level of a Type I-Civilisation. We  find ourselves still on the level of a Type 0-Civilisation. Why? Because we would rather stick to what we believe we have, then to have the  guts to accept the changes of globalisation towards one total civilisation.  Are we one civilisation? No, we’re nowhere near. We are a hotchpotch of small civilisations, which each in its own way hunts for the necessary  sources of energy. Can we become one civilisation? Yes. Is it necessary to become one civilisation? Yes. Why? To ensure our survival. But, will  we become one civilisation? That is what it is about on Earth at the moment. Human (I) as Mean(S) is capable to make the decision to  answer “yes”, but many (still) don’t want to. Too many interests are at stake, they think. This means we rather prefer to remain a Type 0-  Civilisation, or a hotchpotch of so-called, small civilisations, competing, looting and agressively fighting each other, mostly based on colour,  belief and other sectarianism, with all its consequences.  As Michio Kaku states on page 324 of his book “Visions, How science will revolutionize the 21st Century”: “Furthermore, a Type 0 civilization  is like a spoiled child, unable to control its self-destructive temper tantrums and outbursts.  Its immature history is still haunted by the brutal sectarian, fundamentalist, nationalist and  racial hatred of the past millennia. A Type 0 Civilization is still split along deep fracture lines  created thousands of years in the past.  In short, it is fear which stands Human (I) as Mean(S) in the way. Fear based on his history  and on his current idea of reality, which is determined and limited by the propaganda of  religions, governments, multinationals, multimedia and the narrowed sciences. Human (I)  as Mean(S) is taught that his fellow Human (I) as Mean(S) cannot be trusted, ultimately  only to fill the pockets of so-called leaders to the brim. Or in other words, an energy  distribution is created, that only favours the few. Both in the form of certain individuals and  in the form of certain nations.  That it can be different also, is constantly denied and undermined.  Why use the Scale?  Why make use of the Scale of Kardashev?  The idea behind the Scale of Kardashev for humanity is to reach step by step the levels of  civilisation. Among others, Michio Kaku assumes in his book: “Visions, How science will  revolutionize the 21st Century” on page 323 that humanity, on the basis of an economic  growth of 1 percent a year, may be able to achieve the Type I-Civilisation within a hundred  to a few hundred years. And a Type II-Civilisation maybe in about 2,500 jaar. Or at an  economic growth of 2 percent in 1,200 years and at an economic growth of 3 percent in 800  years. He assumes this based on the proposition that: “Since economic growth is fueled by  increased consumption of energy, we would find a corresponding growth in energy as well.  For the transition from a Type II- to a Type III-Civilisation he assumes 100,000 to a few  million years.  For me there are two main reasons to apply the Scale as a basis and starting point, to work  on a possible future for humanity: 1. Literally everything exists of energy. The Scale of Kardashev is based on energy and  energy consumption;  2. The Scale provides Human (I) as Mean(S) a straightforward image as future direction  and goal to work towards. From these two main reasons all kinds of other reasons arise. For one thing it facilitates the discussion, when we look at the entire humanity  from a planetary or cosmic perspective and at the possibilities we have as an entire humanity. This does not mean countries, families and  individual human beings are no longer important. On the contrary. Striving for one total human civilisation may well be based on diversity in  unity. If properly and fairly addressed all humans will be more free than nowadays in their "own" country.  1. All is energy. Everything consists of one or another form of energy. Human (I) as Mean(S) consists of energy and cannot survive without  energy exchange with his direct, closeby environment. Briefly stated, he can not live without energy. This energy he has to get from his  own, immediate environment, or further away. And the used up energy he has to deposit partly in his own, immediate environment, or  further away, as unusable or waste energy and residual energy to him.  Because everything consists of energy and because everything depends on it, the basis and starting point of every civilisation, at  whatever level, is the necessity of energy. And the possibilities and impossibilities of energy usage.  What matters for a civilisation, which wants to survive and live longer and which wants to grow, is how it exchanges its energy with its  closeby, own environment and if need be further away. And with that especially also, how it can increase its amount of usable energy  and how it can deposit its growing amount of unusable energy in such a way to its environment that it does not lead to cumulative waste  and other problems. 2. The levels of civilisation of Kardashev’s Scale give humanity a look at a future worthy of pursuing. A goal, that Human (I) as Mean(S)  can try to achieve. It gives a picture, a grip, of where humanity stands with regard to its history, its current situation and with regard to  its future, when it comes to its energy usage. And so also with regard to the problems that exist worldwide, with energy usage and the  possibilities to solve these in such a way, that the first level, a Type I-Civilisation, can be achieved. It thus places not only “energy  consumption of an entire civilization in a cosmic perspective”, but also the situation, the behaviour and the mentality of human beings  on Earth with regard to energy and energy usage.  Levels of civilisation and behaviour  To tell the truth the Type I-, II- and III-Civilisation not only are (still) completely theoretical, but also, as the English Wikipedia states, very  speculative. This is already evident from the fact that said energy capabilities depend on the planet, the civilisation lives on, the sun, the  planet orbits around and the galaxy, in which the planet is located. The numbers used here are based on human civilisation, its home planet  Earth, its star, the Sun, and its galaxy, the Milky Way. Each other civilisation, on any other planet whatsoever, will have to do other with other,  total energy capabilities of its own planet, its own star and its own galaxy.  The Scale of Kardashev also does not say anything about how certain levels of civilisation will behave themselves towards their possible  neighbours and towards the environments they take their usable energy from and they dump their non-usable energy, nor about how they  will behave towards their own people. The Scale only says something about the degree of energy consumption.  So the behaviour, the moral and ethical values of Type I-, II- and III-Civilisations also are completely theoretical and speculative. This is  worked out already in science fiction. The television series “Star Trek” talks for instance about the Q-continuum, often personified in one Q.  According to the English Wikipedia “the god-like Q Continuum” are a civilisation transcended above a Type III-Civilisation (internet reference  (26-05-11): In the series this civilisation is bestowed arrogance and indifference in its  behaviour, arising from their “"God-like" powers including the ability to manipulate time, space, matter, and energy. They have an almost  omnipotent ability to perceive and know events in the past, present, and future. They are invulnerable and immortal”.  While at the same time they do show a very “unique interest in the development of humanity” (internet reference (26-05-11): Or possibly, they follow human beings in their comings and goings out of pure boredom.  Up Next page